On 1 August (scroll down the stories for the evidence !) we recommended snapping up the 4/1 Paddy Power were offering against French superstar filly Divine Proportions winning the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

As you can see below – the price has been well and truly snapped up to 2/1.

Hopefully, you got on at 4/1. Her next race is the Prix Jacques Le Marois on Sunday when we will lay her to cover our ante-post bet at 4/1. The theory is that a lay will be an insurance bet for us. A defeat on Sunday will probably rule her out of a Breeders’ Cup success so we have had a free bet while a win will probably make the 4/1 look good value.

The maths work as follows:

Example:

£200 stake at 4/1 for the Breeders’ Cup with Paddy Power

Price for Sundays race estimated 1.7

Price you will be able to lay at on Sunday 1.72

You will need to lay at 1.72 for £200.

So, if Divine Proportions wins on Sunday – you will lose £144 – and your potential winnings of £800 on the ante-post bet are reduced to £800-£144 = £656.

If she loses on Sunday you win £200 – and still have the bet running on the Breeders’ Cup but unless it’s a narrow defeat or there’s a hard luck story the ante-post bet maybe worthless – but it’s a free bet.

It’s playing the bookies at their own game and with the exchanges this whole new world is open to you.